Dynamics of epidemics: Impact of easing restrictions and control of infection spread

Silvio L.T. de Souza, Antonio M. Batista, Iberê L. Caldas, Kelly C. Iarosz and José D. Szezech

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2021, vol. 142, issue C

Abstract: During an infectious disease outbreak, mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools to characterize the epidemic dynamics and aid in design public health policies. Using these tools, we provide an overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society. To investigate the dynamics of this outbreak, we consider a deterministic compartmental model (SEIR model) with an additional parameter to simulate the restrictions. In general, as a consequence of easing restrictions, we obtain scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections indicating significant acceleration of the spreading disease. Finally, we show how such undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions, namely, we tailor a successive sequence of the additional parameter to prevent spikes in phases of low rate of transmissibility.

Keywords: COVID-19; SEIR model; Easing restrictions; Spikes of infections; Control of infection spread (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:142:y:2021:i:c:s0960077920308249

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110431

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