Projections and fractional dynamics of the typhoid fever: A case study of Mbandjock in the Centre Region of Cameroon

Hamadjam Abboubakar, Lausaire Kemayou Kombou, Adamou Dang Koko, Henri Paul Ekobena Fouda and Anoop Kumar

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2021, vol. 150, issue C

Abstract: In this work, we formulate a mathematical model with a non-integer order derivative to investigate typhoid fever transmission dynamics. To combat the spread of this disease in the human community, control measures like vaccination are included in the proposed model. We calculate the epidemiological threshold called the control reproduction number, Rc, and perform the asymptotic stability of the typhoid-free equilibrium point. We prove that the typhoid-free equilibrium for both integer and non-integer models is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever Rc is less than one. We also prove that both models admit only one endemic equilibrium point which is globally asymptotically stable whenever Rc>1 and no endemic equilibrium point otherwise. This means that the backward bifurcation phenomenon does not occur. In absence of vaccination, Rc is equal to the basic reproduction number R0. We found out that Rc1), and then to predict new cases of typhoid fever per month at Mbandjock in the next new year. To determine model parameters that are responsible for disease spread in the human community, we perform sensitivity analysis (SA). This analysis shows that the vaccination rate, the human-bacteria contact rate, as well as the recovery rate, are the most important parameters in the disease spread. To validate our analytical results, and to see the impact of some control measures in the spread of typhoid fever in the human community, as well as the impact of the fractional-order on typhoid transmission dynamics, we perform several numerical simulations.

Keywords: Typhoid fever; Asymptotic stability; Adams-Bashforth-Moulton scheme; Parameter estimation; Sensitivity analysis; Caputo derivative (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:150:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921004835

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111129

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