A novel ultra-short-term wind speed prediction method based on dynamic adaptive continued fraction

Ji Jin, Jinyu Tian, Min Yu, Yong Wu and Yuanyan Tang

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2024, vol. 180, issue C

Abstract: Accurate and fast wind speed prediction can enhance the control performance of wind turbines and promote the dispatch of wind power integration. However, the intermittent and fluctuating characteristics of wind speed impose challenges on prediction models. To establish a high-accuracy and fast wind speed prediction model, a novel dynamic adaptive continued fraction (DACF) method is proposed. A more universally structured continued fraction model is utilized to capture the variation pattern of wind speed series. To improve both accuracy and computational efficiency, the stepwise parameter estimation method is introduced to achieve the dynamic and adaptive estimation to the structure parameters of continued fraction model. Moreover, considering the fluctuation feature of wind series, the predicted results of continued fraction model are corrected by the fluctuation residual correction function. And the convergence of the proposed model is theoretically proved. The proposed model is verified from four case studies based on two wind datasets with different time scales of two wind farms and achieves considerable accuracy improvement with 5.37%-28.34% reduction of root mean square error compared with contrasted models. The experimental outcomes confirm that the proposed model outperforms six contrasted models in terms of prediction precision and modeling time.

Keywords: Wind speed prediction; Continued fraction; Stepwise parameter estimation; Fluctuation residual correction function (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077924000833
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:180:y:2024:i:c:s0960077924000833

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.114532

Access Statistics for this article

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros

More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Thayer, Thomas R. ().