A model for coupling the epidemic transmission dynamics and vaccination behavioral dynamics and its application to seasonal influenza

Xiaodan Sun, Shichao Dong, Chenyang Dai and Aili Wang

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2024, vol. 187, issue C

Abstract: This work proposes a model for coupling the epidemic transmission dynamics and vaccination behavioral dynamics, which can well characterize the effect of the vaccine effectiveness, side effects and the perceived risk of infection on vaccination behavioral evolution. The solution of the model may eventually converge to one of the 5 equilibria, or oscillate with time. Periodic solutions of multiple oscillations and chaotic phenomena are observed. Numerical analysis shows that the proportion of susceptible persons willing to be vaccinated is always higher for greater infection rate, and is smaller for higher vaccination rate, while may oscillate with large amplitudes for high speed of behavioral changes. The model is applied to seasonal influenza by fitting time series data on influenza-like-illness cases and vaccination coverage. It reveals that high perceived risk from previous flu seasons, high sensitivity of behavioral changes to the perceived risk, and high vaccine effectiveness could reduce the number of infections, which highlights the importance of media awareness of the past and current epidemic situation. However, the number of infections does not always increase as the speed of behavioral changes increases, which indicates that rapid communications between people is not necessarily conducive to epidemic control.

Keywords: Coupled model; Imitation dynamic; Vaccination behavior; Perceived risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:187:y:2024:i:c:s0960077924010294

DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115477

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