Fiscal policy with an informal sector
Harris Dellas (),
Dimitris Malliaropulos,
Dimitris Papageorgiou and
Evangelia Vourvachaki
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2024, vol. 160, issue C
Abstract:
On the eve of its sovereign debt crisis in 2010, Greece initiated a large fiscal consolidation program. By 2015, official GDP had fallen to 26% below its 2009 level. We feed the actual fiscal package in the DSGE model of the Bank of Greece, augmented to include an informal sector, to assess the contribution of the fiscal package as well as of its individual tax and spending components. The model explains the bulk of the cumulative reduction in economic activity, and attributes roughly half of the decline to government spending measures and the other half to tax increases. The interaction of a large fiscal adjustment with a large and elastic informal sector proved lethal. Our model predicts that had growth in shadow activities been contained, the vicious circle between fiscal adjustment, tax revenue and macroeconomic activity could have been significantly mitigated, resulting in a considerably milder downturn.
Keywords: Greece; Informal economy; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal multipliers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E26 E32 E62 E65 H26 H68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)
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Related works:
Working Paper: Fiscal policy with an informal sector (2017) 
Working Paper: Fiscal Policy with an Informal Sector (2017) 
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:160:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924000125
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104820
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