Valuing the impact of climate change on China’s economic growth

Hongbo Duan, Deyu Yuan, Zongwu Cai and Shouyang Wang

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2022, vol. 74, issue C, 155-174

Abstract: There are still many uncertainties regarding the possible influences of global climate change in the mid-latitude regions, owing to rather limited research and lack of empirical evidence. This paper systematically evaluates the economic impact of climate variation by constructing a 27-year panel dataset of 274 prefecture cities and 816 weather stations in China. Our results document some significant climate–economic relationships, with the increase of 1 °C-temperature, 100 mm-rainfall, and 1%-humidity associated with a 0.78% decrease, 0.86% increase and 1.34% decrease in output, respectively. Higher temperature damages are reflected in less-developed regions, while the positive impact of rainfall mainly appear in more-developed regions. Using integrated assessment models, we project that the model-average climate damage of China may account for up to 4.23 percent of GDP by 2100, based on a nonlinear historical climate–economic interaction.

Keywords: Climate change; Economic output; Heterogeneity effects; Prefecture cities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:74:y:2022:i:c:p:155-174

DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2022.01.019

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