Interest rate trends in a global context

Dmitriy Stolyarov and Linda L. Tesar

Economic Modelling, 2021, vol. 101, issue C

Abstract: Long-term interest rates have been falling globally since the early 1980s and have reached historically low levels. Past forecasts largely missed this secular decline. This paper reviews methodologies for making long-term interest rate projections. We synthesize results from studies that use long historical series and cross-country data to estimate the trend and decompose it into components. We then construct a set of economic indicators that are potentially useful in interest rate forecasting.

Keywords: Interest rate forecast; Secular decline; International economic indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001218

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105532

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