Reshaping Thailand's labor market: The intertwined forces of technology advancements and shifting supply chains

Warn Nuarpear Lekfuangfu () and Voraprapa Nakavachara

Economic Modelling, 2021, vol. 102, issue C

Abstract: Two major forces, namely rapid advancements in technology and changes in global supply chains, can independently affect how labor markets operate. Little is known about the impact of these intertwined forces in combination. This study extends Frey and Osborne's (2017) machine learning approach that explores this issue. We incorporate the features that make certain jobs difficult or impossible to perform using offshore labor markets as well as local experts' opinions to estimate domestic employment risk for each occupation. We apply our models to Thailand – a major destination for outsourced operations with ongoing technological restructuring. Our results reveal that clerical jobs face the highest risk. However, as most workers are employed in the skilled agricultural and service sectors, these occupations stand to suffer most in terms of the number of job losses. Under the assumption of no voluntary adjustments (i.e., the worst-case scenario), more than half of existing jobs could be at risk. Our approach offers a useful tool for countries facing similar structural changes to identify employment risk and develop appropriate mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Employment; Skills; Technology; Global supply chains; Thailand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F16 J20 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001504

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105561

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