Conflicts increased in Africa shortly after COVID-19 lockdowns, but welfare assistance reduced fatalities

Roxana Gutiérrez-Romero

Economic Modelling, 2022, vol. 116, issue C

Abstract: Understanding how rises in local prices affect food-related conflicts is essential for crafting adequate social welfare responses, particularly in settings with an already high level of food vulnerability. We contribute to the literature by examining how rises in local food prices and the lockdowns implemented to contain the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic affected conflict. We analyze real-time conflict data for 24 African countries during 2015–2020, welfare responses to COVID-19, changes in local food prices, and georeferenced data on areas with cultivation, oil, mines, all associated with differentiated risk of conflict. We find that the probability of experiencing food-related conflicts, food looting, riots, and violence against civilians increased shortly after the first strict lockdowns of 2020. Increases in local prices led to increases in violence against civilians. However, countries that timely provided more welfare assistance saw a reduction in the probability of experiencing these conflicts and in the number of associated fatalities. Our results suggest that providing urgent aid and assistance to those who need it can help reduce violence and save lives.

Keywords: Riots; Violence against civilians; Food-related conflict; Food insecurity; Effects of welfare assistance; Africa; COVID-19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 I38 J08 Q11 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002346

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105991

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