 Changing anchor of the renminbi: A Bayesian learning approach to the decade-long transitionChen Zhang, Ying Fang and Linlin Niu Economic Modelling, 2022, vol. 116, issue C Abstract: China’s exchange rate reform, initiated in 2005, had the goal of switching from a fixed U.S. dollar (USD) peg to a floating mechanism with reference to a trade-weighted currency basket. Over a decade of gradual transition, the renminbi (RMB) has gained importance in the international monetary system and has shown higher flexibility in its dollar value. However, previous studies have demonstrated the inertia of the RMB in maintaining a de facto dollar peg, with little evidence of the up-to-date effectiveness of the official currency basket. We present a Bayesian time-varying coefficient regression on the currency peg or basket weight suitable for studying transition process. We show that the exchange rate policy reform in 2015 triggered an eventual anchor switching, driving down the dollar weight from 1 to around 0.3. Since 2016, the weight of the official basket has been double that of the USD. SVAR and TVP-VAR analysis, controlling for endogeneity, provide consistent evidence of this regime change, which has important implications for China and the global economy. Keywords: Renminbi; Exchange rate regime; Dollar peg; Currency basket (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:116:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002693 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106032 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
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