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Winning hearts and minds in conflict-ridden areas: Development as a signal of benevolence

Dushyant Kumar and Prabal Roy Chowdhury

Economic Modelling, 2022, vol. 117, issue C

Abstract: We examine the role of development in signalling governmental benevolence, thereby helping governments combat insurgency in conflict-ridden areas. While there is some literature on the role of development in mitigating conflict, very few studies examine the channel which is our focus, namely popular perception. With popular support being a core ingredient of any successful counter-insurgency program in conflict-ridden areas, investing in development becomes a vital tool in winning hearts and minds of the people, and consequently in controlling insurgency. Using a signalling game setup, we find that allowing for this possibility leads to higher investment in development relative to the socially efficient outcome. Finally, developmental projects that have greater effect on popular perception, e.g. those that are likely to get greater media coverage, or those with quick returns, get prioritised.

Keywords: Conflict; Development as signalling; Hearts and minds; Over-investment in (observable) development; Under-investment in unobservable development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C79 D74 D82 H53 H56 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:117:y:2022:i:c:s0264999322002875

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106050

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