 Business cycle synchronization and asymmetry in the European UnionVladimir Arčabić, Irina Panovska and Josip Tica Economic Modelling, 2024, vol. 139, issue C Abstract: Measuring output gaps and assessing business cycle synchronization across countries can be an important research theme for an economic union. However, different empirical models can lead to very different inference about output gaps. We analyze business cycle movements and synchronization for all European Union members for the period 1975Q1–pre-COVID and 1975Q1–2022Q4. We account for model uncertainty by averaging across a set of output gap models both by using a Phillips Curve motivated weighted average and a simple average. Similarly, we compare several alternative synchronization measures. We find that, in contrast to the previous literature, both the estimated output gap and the level of synchronization depend on the individual empirical measure used. Our averaged gaps match recession dates well and suggest that many of the countries exhibit a high degree of business cycle nonlinearities. Finally, the core Eurozone countries are highly synchronized, but there are differences in synchronization outside the core. Keywords: Business cycle synchronization; Output gaps; Business cycle asymmetry; Eurozone (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001676 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106811 Access Statistics for this article Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.