The effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States

Luca Metelli () and Filippo Natoli

Economic Modelling, 2017, vol. 62, issue C, 16-22

Abstract: We investigate the effect of a Chinese slowdown on inflation in the euro area and the United States using the NiGEM multi-country model. We construct different scenarios including a fall in Chinese aggregate demand, a commodity price slump, financial market corrections and a devaluation of the renmimbi. While the commodity slump has the strongest impact on inflation, the demand and exchange rate shocks also play a role; on the contrary, financial turbulences have minor effects. Finally, we study the extent to which monetary policy in advanced economies can succeed in reflating the economy following such a Chinese slowdown. The room for central bank interventions is large.

Keywords: China; Slowdown; Deflation; Devaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 F40 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316309026
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:62:y:2017:i:c:p:16-22

DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.026

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Modelling is currently edited by S. Hall and P. Pauly

More articles in Economic Modelling from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().