Back to fundamentals: The role of expected cash flows in equity valuation

Stephen R. Foerster and Stephen G. Sapp

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, vol. 22, issue 3, 320-343

Abstract: To better understand how investors have historically valued equities, we compare monthly values of the S&P Index to our corresponding estimated fundamental values from 1871 to 2010, using ex ante available information. We find that the simple Gordon Growth Model performs better than other, more sophisticated valuation models. Based on the Gordon Growth Model, equities were undervalued prior to 1914, overvalued between 1914 and 1981, and fairly valued until 2010 after controlling for well-known economic and price-based factors. We also find the implied market risk premium over this period is around 5%.

Keywords: Asset pricing; Valuation; Dividend discount model; Multi-factor models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G21 G35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:320-343

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2011.06.001

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