Inflation dynamics and persistence: The importance of the uncertainty channel

Alessandra Canepa

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2024, vol. 72, issue C

Abstract: In this article, we employ a time-varying GARCH-type specification to model inflation and investigate the behaviour of its persistence. Specifically, by modelling the inflation series as AR(1)-APARCH(1,1)-in-mean-level process with breaks, we show that persistence is transmitted from the conditional variance to the conditional mean. Accordingly, we propose a new measure of time-varying persistence, which not only distinguishes between changes in the dynamics of inflation and its volatility but also allows for feedback between the two variables. Analysing the inflation series for a number of countries, we find evidence that inflation uncertainty plays an important role in shaping expectations, and a higher level of uncertainty increases inflation persistence. We also consider a number of unit root tests and present the results of a Monte Carlo experiment to investigate the size and power properties of these tests in the presence of breaks in the mean and the variance equation of an AR(1)-APARCH(1,1)-in-mean-level data generating process. The Monte Carlo experiment reveals that if the model is misspecified, then commonly used unit root tests will misclassify inflation as a nonstationary, rather than a stationary process.

Keywords: Inflation persistence; Conditional heteroscedasticity; GARCH-in-mean; Unit root tests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C22 C52 E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:72:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824000603

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102135

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