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Geopolitical risk hedging or timing: Evidence from hedge fund strategies

Tianyi Ma and Xuting Zhou

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2024, vol. 74, issue C

Abstract: An increasing number of investors are concerned about how they can diversify risks and profits amid surging geopolitical uncertainties. Using a geopolitical risk timing/hedging model, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can effectively hedge or time geopolitical risks by adopting different trading strategies. We find that excluding those in the global macro category, hedge funds with higher minimum investments and management fees exhibit greater success in hedging geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, global macro hedge funds, which have longer lockup periods, are more adept at timing geopolitical risks by increasing their market exposures. Furthermore, hedge funds which are the top geopolitical risk hedgers and timers demonstrate higher economic value than those in the bottom group over the subsequent one and three months. Our findings provide valuable insights into private investors’ selection of hedge funds during periods of heightened geopolitical risk.

Keywords: Geopolitical risk; Hedge funds; Market timing ability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F30 G23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:74:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824001657

DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102240

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