Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production

Lotanna E. Emediegwu and Chisom L. Ubabukoh

Ecological Economics, 2023, vol. 204, issue PA

Abstract: Attempts to analyze the effect of weather shocks on livestock production have been carried out using integrated assessment models (IAMs) or the cross-sectional (Ricardian) method. However, these methodologies are fraught with obvious shortcomings, such as omitted variable bias, amongst others. This paper, therefore, re-examines the relationship between weather changes and global livestock production using an established econometric strategy that takes care of the pitfalls inherent in the conventional approaches. Using country-level data and a variety of specifications, we find that a 1 °C increase in temperature will lead to a 9.7% reduction in global beef production on average. These adverse effects are amplified in hot, poor, and agriculture-dependent countries. Besides, we find that a marginal increase in annual precipitation would lead to a 2.1% increase in beef production in tropical countries but a 1.9% decrease in temperate ones. Also, our forecasts show that climate change will reduce animal output by a further 20% in the mid-century and an additional 40% by the end of the century assuming no adaptation other than the degree of adaptation observed in the historical period.

Keywords: Adaptation; Livestock; Panel data; Precipitation; Temperature (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:204:y:2023:i:pa:s0921800922003238

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107662

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