Remaining Loyal to Our Soil: A Prospective Integrated Assessment of Soil Erosion on Global Food Security

Martina Sartori, Emanuele Ferrari, Robert M'Barek, George Philippidis, Kirsten Boysen-Urban, Pasquale Borrelli, Luca Montanarella and Panos Panagos

Ecological Economics, 2024, vol. 219, issue C

Abstract: Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur.

Keywords: Soil erosion; Prospective interdisciplinary/integrated modelling; Land productivity loss; Computable general equilibrium; Land footprints; Climate-economic scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 Q10 Q24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:219:y:2024:i:c:s092180092300366x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108103

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