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Bayesian inference does not lead you astray…on average

Alejandro Francetich and David Kreps

Economics Letters, 2014, vol. 125, issue 3, 444-446

Abstract: The expected value of the log of a Bayesian’s posterior assessment of the true state of nature, computed under the probability law of the true state, is always at least as large as the log of the prior.

Keywords: Bayesian inference; Submartingale; Log Posterior (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C1 C11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:125:y:2014:i:3:p:444-446

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.10.022

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