The longer-term electoral effect of carrying a state in U.S. presidential elections

B.K. Song

Economics Letters, 2022, vol. 216, issue C

Abstract: Under the U.S. Electoral College system, battleground states receive a degree of attention from candidates and political parties that is out of proportion to their contribution to the vote total because they can effectively determine the outcome of a presidential election. Although the public and researchers tend to focus on the immediate impact of winning a battleground state on the current contest, the outcome of a following election may also be affected. In this paper, I investigate the effect of winning a state on the outcome of the next election, using a regression discontinuity (RD) design. The results of my RD analyses indicate that winning a state increases the party’s vote share in the next election. I also find evidence of a positive spillover effect of winning a state in a presidential election on later House of Representatives elections.

Keywords: Electoral college; US presidential election; Regression discontinuity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D83 H77 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:216:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522001677

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110574

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