The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations

Sandro Steinbach

Economics Letters, 2023, vol. 226, issue C

Abstract: This paper uses a product-level empirical model of bilateral trade to examine the global trade implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that imports from Ukraine were 47.3% below the counterfactual between February and August 2022. The Russia–Ukraine war led to significant trade diversion for Russia, primarily benefiting Russian mineral oil and gas exports to Europe and Asia. The analysis also reveals that the trade adjustments operate mainly through import price hikes, with notable heterogeneity across product groups and regions. The findings indicate that the Ukraine–Russia war had significant trade implications for Ukraine and Russia but only limited ones for other countries.

Keywords: Russian invasion of Ukraine; International trade; Trade destruction and diversion; Treatment heterogeneity; Dynamic trade effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:226:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523001003

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111075

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