Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature

Maria Dolores Gadea-Rivas, Jesus Gonzalo and Andrey Ramos

Economics Letters, 2024, vol. 244, issue C

Abstract: Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.

Keywords: Trends; Unit roots; Structural breaks; Temperature; Aggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Related works:
Working Paper: Trends in Temperature Data: Micro-foundations of Their Nature (2023)
Working Paper: Trends in temperature data: micro-foundations of their nature (2023)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004762

DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111992

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