Bilberry vs. cowberry in a scots pine boreal forest. II. Alternate modes of prediction

Dmitrii O. Logofet

Ecological Modelling, 2019, vol. 405, issue C, 43-50

Abstract: The bilberry-vs.-cowberry fine-scale dynamics has been modelled by a discrete Markov chain of transitions among the four observable statuses of permanent sample plots: bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) alone, cowberry (V. vitis-idaea) alone, both species, and species-free (Logofet and Maslov, 2019). Six successive examinations of spp. presence/absence on 20 × 20 cm quadrats located along permanent transects in a Scots pine boreal forest were initiated in 1980, 26 years after a forest fire in 1954, and repeated in every 5 years, thus scoping the 25 years of post-fire succession (Maslov, 1989). Those data have provided the exact calibration of 5 one-step transition matrices forming a nonautonomous Markov-chain model. Its basic prediction (forward forecast) has been obtained as the limiting distribution of states generated by the geometric average of transition matrices featured increase in the share species coexistence.

Keywords: Post-fire succession; Markov chain; Matrix average; Validation forecast; Reversal of data; Backward prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:405:y:2019:i:c:p:43-50

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.04.002

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