Is there a stepping stone effect in drug use? Separating state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity within and between illicit drugs

Monica Deza

Journal of Econometrics, 2015, vol. 184, issue 1, 193-207

Abstract: Empirically, teenagers who use soft drugs are more likely to use hard drugs in the future. This pattern can be explained by a causal effect (i.e., state dependence between drugs or stepping-stone effects) or by unobserved characteristics that make people more likely to use both soft and hard drugs (i.e., correlated unobserved heterogeneity). I estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of alcohol, marijuana and hard drug use over multiple years, and separately identify the contributions of state dependence (within and between drugs) and unobserved heterogeneity. I find statistically significant “stepping-stone” effects from softer to harder drugs, and conclude that alcohol, marijuana and hard drugs are complements in utility.

Keywords: State dependence; Stepping-stone; Illicit drugs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C33 I10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:econom:v:184:y:2015:i:1:p:193-207

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.08.005

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