Trade networks and economic fluctuations in Asian countries

Paolo Giudici, Bihong Huang and Alessandro Spelta

Economic Systems, 2019, vol. 43, issue 2, -

Abstract: The paper presents a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and to assess its strength in forecasting economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using the monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the US, EU and UK, we detect the community structure of the evolving network and we identify clusters and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronisation between GDP growth and trade. Furthermore we apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account.

Keywords: Asia; Trade network; Tensor decomposition; Community detection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C59 C63 G00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:43:y:2019:i:2:2

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2019.100695

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