Integrating a choice experiment into an agent-based model to simulate climate-change induced migration: The case of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam

Tra Thi Trinh and Alistair Munro

Journal of choice modelling, 2023, vol. 48, issue C

Abstract: Forecasting the future impact of climate change on migration is difficult, for many reasons, including the interactive and dynamic nature of many decisions and the heterogeneity of behavior. One popular solution, agent-based models (ABM) cope well with dynamics and heterogeneity, but often lack rigorous foundations in terms of individual behavior. Moreover, given limited exposure to actual climate change, it can be a challenge to build adequate behavioral models of migration choice based on historical data. To tackle this issue, we build an ABM of future migration using a bespoke choice experiment (CE) designed to examine intention to migrate among farmers living in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In the CE, respondents are asked to make migration choices for scenarios constructed using six attributes: drought intensity, flood frequency, income gain from migration, migration networks, neighbors' choice, and crop choice restriction. The simulation runs to 2050 and is based on two scenarios of future global emissions of greenhouse gases—Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results suggest potentially high levels of migration as a result of climate change and the particular importance of positive feedback from pre-existing migration and neighbor's choices. The results also suggest that crop-restriction regulations have a significant impact on migration for coastal provinces of VMD. Finally, we find that migration drivers vary significantly across provinces, which suggests the policymakers point to targeted action for each province. In summary, the study demonstrates how integrating CE into ABM can foster the predictive modeling of climate-induced migration.

Keywords: Climate change; Migration; Choice experiment; Drought and saline intrusion; Flood; Agent-based model; Vietnam; Mekong rivers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C35 D9 Q51 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:48:y:2023:i:c:s1755534523000295

DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100428

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