Persistent Pandemics

Peter Lin and Christopher Meissner

Economics & Human Biology, 2021, vol. 43, issue C

Abstract: We ask whether mortality from historical pandemics has any predictive content for mortality in the Covid-19 pandemic. We find strong persistence in public health performance. Places that performed worse in terms of mortality in the 1918 influenza pandemic also have higher Covid-19 mortality today. This is true across countries as well as across a sample of large US cities. Experience with SARS in 2003 is associated with slightly lower mortality today. We discuss some socio-political factors that may account for persistence including distrust of expert advice, lack of cooperation, over-confidence, and health care supply shortages. Multi-generational effects of past pandemics may also matter.

Keywords: Covid-19; SARS; Persistence; Influenza; Pandemic; 1918 pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:43:y:2021:i:c:s1570677x2100068x

DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2021.101044

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