Is there a housing bubble in China?

Tianhao Zhi, Zhongfei Li, Zhiqiang Jiang, Lijian Wei and Didier Sornette

Emerging Markets Review, 2019, vol. 39, issue C, 120-132

Abstract: This paper aims to conduct a series of bubble diagnostic analysis over 35 representative Chinese cities. We apply the Log-Periodic-Power-Law-Singularity (LPPLS) model to detect whether there is any evidence of unsustainable, self-reinforcing speculative behaviours amongst the price series. We also investigate whether the prices had been significantly deviating from economic fundamentals by applying the E-G cointegration test. Overall, we found that 10 out of the 35 cities being examined had exhibited positive LPPLS signals. We propose that it is vital to conduct bubble diagnostic tests and implement relevant policies toward specific bubble characteristics.

Keywords: Housing bubble; Log-period-power-law-singularity; Bubble prediction; Chinese housing market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F37 G01 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014118301833
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ememar:v:39:y:2019:i:c:p:120-132

DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2019.04.005

Access Statistics for this article

Emerging Markets Review is currently edited by Jonathan A. Batten

More articles in Emerging Markets Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().