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The cyclical behavior of household and corporate credit in emerging economies

Seung-Gyu Sim and Saiah Lee

Emerging Markets Review, 2020, vol. 45, issue C

Abstract: Standard consumption-investment theory predicts counter-cyclical (pro-cyclical) behavior of household (corporate) credit whereby households' consumption smoothing and firms' investment motives are aligned. Counter to the theoretical symbiosis consistent with U.S. data, we demonstrate not only in South Korea, but also in 19 emerging economies that the pro-cyclical behavior of household credit dominates that of corporate credit. Our analysis further reveals that dominant, pro-cyclical household credit accompanied by (collateral) assets and fueled by external debt generates counter-cyclical behavior in interest rates, amplifies credit market fluctuation, and hinders the growth of small- and medium-size businesses in the South Korean economy.

Keywords: Corporate credit; Household credit; Emerging economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E20 E32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ememar:v:45:y:2020:i:c:s1566014118302231

DOI: 10.1016/j.ememar.2020.100724

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