Market sentiment in commodity futures returns

Lin Gao and Stephan Süss

Journal of Empirical Finance, 2015, vol. 33, issue C, 84-103

Abstract: We identify a strong presence of sentiment exposure in commodity futures returns. Sentiment is able to provide additional explanatory power for comovement among commodity futures beyond the macro- and equity-related sources. Commodity futures with low open interest growth, high volatilities, low momentum, or low futures basis are more sensitive to change in sentiment. Similar to Baker and Wurgler (2006), we construct a market sentiment index by Partial Least Squares regressions (PLS) with non-return based stock market proxies, in particular higher moments of the option implied return distribution. Moreover, our sentiment index can be built on a daily basis.

Keywords: Commodity futures; Market sentiment; Comovement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (52)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539815000687
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:empfin:v:33:y:2015:i:c:p:84-103

DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.07.001

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Empirical Finance is currently edited by R. T. Baillie, F. C. Palm, Th. J. Vermaelen and C. C. P. Wolff

More articles in Journal of Empirical Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().