Analysing decarbonizing strategies in the European power system applying stochastic dominance constraints

Ruth Domínguez, Sebastiano Vitali, Miguel Carrión and Vittorio Moriggia

Energy Economics, 2021, vol. 101, issue C

Abstract: In this paper we develop an analysis of the efficiency of the expansion strategies to be followed to attain the emissions targets established by the European Commission in the Energy Roadmap 2050. A multi-stage investment model in generating and storage capacity from the point of view of a central planner is presented, considering long-term uncertainties in the decision-making process, such as the demand growth and the investment and fuel costs, and short-term variability. To evaluate the wellness of the expansion strategies according to the CO2 emissions generated and the total cost, second-order stochastic dominance constraints are introduced in the model. This approach allows to obtain better expansion strategies enforcing acceptable distributions of CO2 emissions. The numerical study is carried out considering the case of the European power system. The predictions and suggestions made by the European Commission towards 2050 are the basis to define the benchmark solutions, whose outcomes are analysed. The results obtained from this study highlight that a renewable capacity of at least 2900 GW is needed to attain a net zero CO2 emission European power system. The strategy based on carbon capture and storage does not reduce effectively CO2 emissions while it represents an expensive alternative. Including stochastic dominance in the optimization model allows to obtain less expensive alternative expansion strategies with comparatively lower CO2 emissions in the worst scenarios.

Keywords: CO2 emissions; Renewable energy; European decarbonization roadmap; Capacity expansion; Stochastic dominance; Multi-stage stochastic optimization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 C63 Q42 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988321003297
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321003297

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105438

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().