How good are analyst forecasts of oil prices?

Gonzalo Cortazar, Hector Ortega and Consuelo Valencia

Energy Economics, 2021, vol. 102, issue C

Abstract: Even though there is a wide consensus that having good oil price forecasts is very valuable for many agents in the economy, results have not been fully satisfactory and there is an ongoing effort to improve their accuracy. Research has explored many different modeling approaches including time series, regressions, and artificial intelligence, among others. Also, many different sources of input data have been used like spot and futures prices, product spreads, and micro and macro variables.

Keywords: Forecasting; Oil prices; Futures; Expected prices; Pricing models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G13 L94 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:102:y:2021:i:c:s0140988321003856

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105500

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