Climate change and fossil fuel prices: A GARCH-MIDAS analysis

Mohammed M. Tumala, Afees Salisu and Yaaba B. Nmadu

Energy Economics, 2023, vol. 124, issue C

Abstract: In this study, we investigate the connection between climate change and the volatility of fossil fuel prices using the GARCH-MIDAS framework which accommodates mixed data frequencies and by extension circumvents information loss due to splicing or aggregation of one variable for the other. We conduct a battery of robustness tests that allow for nominal and real prices of fossil fuels as well as global financial crises (GFC). We show a strong connection between climate change and the volatility of fossil fuel prices albeit with stronger evidence in the post-GFC period. The outcome is positive in the recent period and therefore climate change seems to have heightened the volatility in the fossil fuel market. Even when the real prices are considered, results remain consistent, indicating that inflationary pressures do not diminish the effect of climate change on fossil fuel price volatility. We also show that own market risk positively impacts the volatility of fossil fuel prices and the volatility tends to persist when there is a shock to the fossil fuel market. More conscious efforts are needed to effectively discourage increased investments in environmentally-degrading assets.

Keywords: Fossil fuel prices; Climate change; Predictability; Global financial crisis; GARCH-MIDAS; Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: P28 Q02 Q32 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:124:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323002906

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106792

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