The unintended dilemma of China's target-based carbon neutrality policy and provincial economic inequality

Chaoyi Guo, Ziqiao Zhou, Xinyuan Liu, Xiaorui Liu, Jing Meng and Hancheng Dai

Energy Economics, 2023, vol. 126, issue C

Abstract: Target-based carbon mitigation could be an essential strategy for achieving carbon neutrality. However, how carbon reduction will affect economic balance across different regions remains unclear. Here, with a newly developed dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium model for China's 31 provincial economies, we examine the regional economic impacts of different carbon quota arrangement schemes. It is found that without fostering new growth engines driven by low-carbon industries, the national stringent carbon restrictions will bring an ‘economic sabotage’ with deteriorated regional equity and polarized the industrial structures, especially in the fossil-fuel reliant north China. Carbon shadow prices and costs play a prominent role and cause rippling effects in this regionally imbalanced recession, depending on energy, industrial structures and endowments. Furthermore, no prevailing carbon quota arrangements, either by historical, intensity, or capacity rules, could resolve the dilemma between equality and effectiveness in our simulation. By contrast, to offset the regionally unbalanced shock of decarbonization, it is important to cultivate low-carbon industries timely to compensate for the potential transition costs in the long run.

Keywords: Carbon neutrality; Regional economic inequality; General equilibrium; China; IMED model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323005005

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107002

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