Does the S&P500 index lead the crude oil dynamics? A complexity-based approach
Catherine Kyrtsou,
Christina Mikropoulou and
Angeliki Papana
Energy Economics, 2016, vol. 56, issue C, 239-246
Abstract:
Taking the complex property of nonlinear feedback connectivity into consideration, the goal of this paper is to apprehend the interdependences between the financial and energy sectors. Our contribution is both theoretical and methodological. We conduct a multivariate analysis employing nonlinear tools, namely the Partial Transfer Entropy and the Asymmetric Mackey-Glass causality test. In particular, we build a system comprising the petroleum complex (crude oil, gasoline and heating oil), the S&P500 index and the 1-month futures-spot spread for crude oil. By adopting a rolling-window approach, we observe a persistent lead-lag relationship between the S&P500 index and the market participants' expectations for crude oil, from 2004 to 2009. Depending on the bubble period in the stock market, it appears that the resulting coupling becomes subject to the deterioration of global economic activity, induced by large common shocks.
Keywords: Nonlinear causality; S&P500; Petroleum complex; Futures-spot price spread; Speculation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C32 E32 G10 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988316300020
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:56:y:2016:i:c:p:239-246
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.001
Access Statistics for this article
Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant
More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu (repec@elsevier.com).