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Timing strategy performance in the crude oil futures market

Nick Taylor

Energy Economics, 2017, vol. 66, issue C, 480-492

Abstract: The rewards to speculative trading in the crude oil futures market are assessed. For investors who adopt timing strategies that maximise their (iso-elastic) utility during each trading session, the rewards can be economically significant providing that transaction costs are small. Moreover, we are able to show via a decomposition of performance that the bulk of this benefit is due to their ability to predict realised volatility (that is, the second realised moment). The benefits derived from predicting other realised moments either require unrealistic levels of skill (all odd moments) or an infeasible degree of risk aversion (the fourth moment and higher even moments).

Keywords: Crude oil futures; Timing strategies; Realised moments; Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C22 C53 C58 G11 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:480-492

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.07.019

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Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant

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