Where did the time (series) go? Estimation of marginal emission factors with autoregressive components

Filippo Beltrami, Andrew Burlinson, Monica Giulietti, Luigi Grossi, Paul Rowley and Grant Wilson

Energy Economics, 2020, vol. 91, issue C

Abstract: This paper offers a novel contribution to the literature on Marginal Emission Factors (MEF) by proposing a robust empirical methodology for their estimation across both time and space. Our Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models with time-effects not only outperforms the established models in the economics literature but it also proves more reliable than variations adopted in the field of engineering. Utilising half-hourly data on carbon emissions and generation in Great Britain, the results allow us to identify a more stable path of MEFs than obtained with existing methodologies. We also estimate marginal emission effects over subsequent time periods (intra-day), rather than focussing only on individual settlement periods (inter-day). This allows us to evaluate the annual cycle of emissions as a result of changes in the economic and social activity which drives demand. Moreover, the reliability of our approach is further confirmed upon exploring the cross-country context. Indeed, our methodology proves reliable when applied to the case of Italy, which is characterised by a different data generation process. Crucially, we provide a more robust basis for valuing actual carbon emission reductions, especially in electricity systems with high penetration of intermittent renewable technologies.

Keywords: Electricity generation; Marginal emission factors; Time series analysis; Regulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 Q41 Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:91:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320302450

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104905

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