 Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity pricesKatarzyna Maciejowska (), Weronika Nitka and Tomasz Weron Energy Economics, 2021, vol. 99, issue C Abstract: In recent years, a rapid development of renewable energy sources (RES) has been observed across the world. Intermittent energy sources, which depend strongly on weather conditions, induce additional uncertainty to the system and impact the level and variability of electricity prices. Predictions of RES, together with the level of demand, have been recognized as one of the most important determinants of future electricity prices. In this research, it is shown that forecasts of these fundamental variables, which are published by Transmission System Operators (TSO), are biased and could be improved with simple regression models. Enhanced predictions are next used for forecasting of spot and intraday prices in Germany. The results indicate that improving the forecasts of fundamentals leads to more accurate predictions of both, the spot and the intraday prices. Finally, it is demonstrated that utilization of enhanced forecasts is helpful in a day-ahead choice of a market (spot or intraday), and results in a substantial increase of revenues. Keywords: Renewables; Electricity prices; Day-ahead market; Intraday market; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:99:y:2021:i:c:s014098832100178x DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105273 Access Statistics for this article Energy Economics is currently edited by R. S. J. Tol, Beng Ang, Lance Bachmeier, Perry Sadorsky, Ugur Soytas and J. P. Weyant More articles in Energy Economics from Elsevier |
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