Will Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard help? Modeling CAFE's impact on market share of electric vehicles

Burak Sen, Mehdi Noori and Omer Tatari

Energy Policy, 2017, vol. 109, issue C, 279-287

Abstract: The purpose of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards is to enhance the fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles in the United States. Although these standards had been set constant for years, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) set increasing CAFE standards in 2011 based on vehicle's footprint, requiring vehicle manufacturers to improve the fuel economy of the vehicles they produce. This resulting improvement in vehicle fuel economy is likely to influence consumers’ decisions regarding new vehicle purchases, while the stringent CAFE standards are also likely to affect manufacturers’ production costs and benefits. In addition, the government provides various incentives to support the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), including electric vehicles (EVs), which in turn will likewise influences consumers’ decisions regarding purchasing a new vehicle. An agent-based model is developed in this paper to estimate the potential future market shares of EVs considering the existing inherent uncertainties under different policy scenarios, including the footprint-based CAFE regulation. The results show that, if implemented effectively in conjunction with the available government incentives, the CAFE regulation can accelerate EV market penetration and help the U.S. to move away from conventional vehicles, thus reducing fossil fuel dependency.

Keywords: EV market penetration; Fuel economy; Agent-based modeling; CAFE standards; Consumer choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517304391
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:279-287

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.07.008

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().