Exploring the development of electric vehicles under policy incentives: A scenario-based system dynamics model

Dunnan Liu and Bowen Xiao

Energy Policy, 2018, vol. 120, issue C, 8-23

Abstract: Recently, the energy scarcity and environmental pollution have greatly promoted rapid development of the electric vehicles (EV) industry. In this context, we established a scenario analysis using system dynamics model to analyze the development of EV in China under policy incentives. Four scenarios were set in this paper: scenario 1 (Without any policy), scenario 2 (Only direct policy), scenario 3 (Only indirect policy), scenario 4 (Both direct & indirect policy). It is shown that the EV industry was in preliminary stage in 2010. After a period of development, in 2040, the total amount of EVs will reach 4.03, 8.61, 4.2 and 8.85 million in scenario 1–4. The results indicate that China's EV market penetration is mainly dominated by state policies, especially the financial supports. Reducing the governments’ financial supports for EVs will put EV manufacturers at a cost disadvantage in the automobile markets. In addition, because of our emerging carbon market and low average carbon price, participating in carbon trading market cannot promote a rapid growth by stimulating investment passion. In all, cutting the financial supports is not a good option, because the large-scale market penetration still requires the clear and strong policy incentives.

Keywords: Electric vehicle; System dynamics model; Financial support; Emission trade scheme; Scenario analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518302878
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:120:y:2018:i:c:p:8-23

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.073

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().