EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis

M.L.M. Broeren, D. Saygin and M.K. Patel

Energy Policy, 2014, vol. 64, issue C, 273-287

Abstract: The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy user, but detailed analysis of its energy use developments lags behind other energy-intensive sectors. A cost-driven forecasting model for basic chemicals production is developed, accounting for regional production costs, demand growth and stock turnover. The model determines the global production capacity placement, implementation of energy-efficient Best Practice Technology (BPT) and global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the period 2010–2030. Subsequently, the effects of energy and climate policies on these parameters are quantified. About 60% of new basic chemical production capacity is projected to be placed in non-OECD regions by 2030 due to low energy prices. While global production increases by 80% between 2010 and 2030, the OECD's production capacity share decreases from 40% to 20% and global emissions increase by 50%. Energy pricing and climate policies are found to reduce 2030 CO2 emissions by 5–15% relative to the baseline developments by increasing BPT implementation. Maximum BPT implementation results in a 25% reduction. Further emission reductions require measures beyond energy-efficient technologies. The model is useful to estimate general trends related to basic chemicals production, but improved data from the chemical sector is required to expand the analysis to additional technologies and chemicals.

Keywords: Industrial cost-competitiveness; Scenario analysis; Energy efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300949X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:273-287

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.025

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu (repec@elsevier.com).

 
Page updated 2024-12-28
Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:273-287