China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

Xiang Yin, Wenying Chen, Jiyong Eom, Leon E. Clarke, Son H. Kim, Pralit L. Patel, Sha Yu and G. Page Kyle

Energy Policy, 2015, vol. 82, issue C, 233-248

Abstract: Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.

Keywords: Integrated assessment; Transport sector; CO2 mitigation; GCAM-China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:82:y:2015:i:c:p:233-248

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.03.021

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