Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources

Ryoichi Komiyama and Yasumasa Fujii

Energy Policy, 2015, vol. 83, issue C, 169-184

Abstract: This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.

Keywords: Nuclear; Variable renewable; Power generation mix; Rechargeable battery (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:83:y:2015:i:c:p:169-184

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.005

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