The reference forecast of the German energy transition—An outlook on electricity markets

Andreas Knaut, Christian Tode, Dietmar Lindenberger, Raimund Malischek, Simon Paulus and Johannes Wagner

Energy Policy, 2016, vol. 92, issue C, 477-491

Abstract: The enactment of the Energy Concept by the German Government in 2010 set ambitious targets for the future energy transition in Germany. The most prominent goals include a greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of the economy and an increase in the share of renewable energy in the whole energy sector. Since the long run effects of these policy measures are hard to assess, science-based policy evaluation methods are needed to identify weak points and areas with a need for action. This paper presents the results of the German Energy Reference Forecast with a focus on the electricity sector. It is based on an investment and dispatch model for the European electricity sector over the planning horizon of the ‘Energiewende’ up to 2050, with an emphasis on the time period up to 2030. We find that almost all targets of the German ‘Energiewende’ are not reached, for the case in which no further measures are undertaken. In particular reductions in GHG emissions fall short to the target value. Contrary to the negative results, e.g., regarding GHG-emissions as well as gross electricity consumption, generation from renewable energy sources will exceed the policy's target value.

Keywords: Climate protection; Renewable energy; Policy evaluation; Electricity market modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 L94 Q40 Q48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:92:y:2016:i:c:p:477-491

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.010

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