German Energiewende and the heating market – Impact and limits of policy

Klaas Bauermann

Energy Policy, 2016, vol. 94, issue C, 235-246

Abstract: The German Energiewende envisages achieving a climate-neutral building stock in 2050 by means of two major pillars of regulation. First, residential buildings should consume 80% less primary energy and second; the remaining energy demand should be covered primarily with renewables. This paper simulates the future German heating market under different policy scenarios in order to evaluate the impact and limits of recent and conceivable policies. The investigation is based upon a dual model approach, linking a residential heating model to a discrete choice model. The major finding is that current regulations are not suitable for the achievement of governmental targets. Scenario calculations show that additional carbon emission reductions, triggered by the current regulatory regime, are falling short of expectations. In terms of economic efficiency, all calculated policy alternatives outperform the regulation currently in place. This allows to draw the conclusion that carbon emission reductions can be achieved without a major increase in cost. The model results highlight two policy implications. First, a rising mandatory share of renewables in the heating market is needed for target achievement and can be cost effectively. Second, renewable obligations for heating systems must include the existing building stock to achieve the postulated political targets.

Keywords: Residential heating market; Policy evaluation; Decarbonisation; Discrete choice (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301410
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:enepol:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:235-246

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.03.041

Access Statistics for this article

Energy Policy is currently edited by N. France

More articles in Energy Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().