Two-stage stochastic programming model for the regional-scale electricity planning under demand uncertainty

Yun-Hsun Huang, Jung-Hua Wu and Yu-Ju Hsu

Energy, 2016, vol. 116, issue P1, 1145-1157

Abstract: Traditional electricity supply planning models regard the electricity demand as a deterministic parameter and require the total power output to satisfy the aggregate electricity demand. But in today's world, the electric system planners are facing tremendously complex environments full of uncertainties, where electricity demand is a key source of uncertainty. In addition, electricity demand patterns are considerably different for different regions. This paper developed a multi-region optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming framework to incorporate the demand uncertainty. Furthermore, the decision tree method and Monte Carlo simulation approach are integrated into the model to simplify electricity demands in the form of nodes and determine the values and probabilities. The proposed model was successfully applied to a real case study (i.e. Taiwan's electricity sector) to show its applicability. Detail simulation results were presented and compared with those generated by a deterministic model. Finally, the long-term electricity development roadmap at a regional level could be provided on the basis of our simulation results.

Keywords: Multi-region optimization model; Two-stage stochastic programming; Demand uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:116:y:2016:i:p1:p:1145-1157

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.112

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