Mass and energy-capital conservation equations to forecast the oil price evolution with accumulation or depletion of the resources

Fabio Gori

Energy, 2016, vol. 116, issue P1, 746-760

Abstract: The present work extends the approach of using the mass and energy-capital conservation equations to forecast the price evolution of oil when accumulation or depletion is present. The price evolution is then dependent on the consumption rate of the oil, besides the ratio of mass extraction to mass consumption rates, and the usual economic parameters, e.g. the interest rates of non-extracted and extracted resources. The main conclusions are that a ratio of mass extraction to consumption rates different from unity, i.e. when accumulation or depletion of the oil is present, can modify the approach of the oil price forecast without accumulation or depletion of the resources.

Keywords: Oil price forecast; Accumulation or depletion of the oil resources; Mass and energy-capital conservation equations; Consumption rate; Interest rate of non-extracted oil; Interest rate of extracted oil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:116:y:2016:i:p1:p:746-760

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.018

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