How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating

Sven Eggimann, Will Usher, Nick Eyre and Jim W. Hall

Energy, 2020, vol. 195, issue C

Abstract: Electrification of heat will impact demands on power systems, potentially increasing sensitivity to weather variability. We have developed a spatio-temporal methodology for assessing electricity demand in the context of weather variability. We analyse varying levels of electrification of heat in the United Kingdom and simulate local weather impacts with an ensemble of 100 weather realisations. Across the scenarios, the maximum simulated national electricity peak demand doubles compared to today. Assuming current weather pattern, the weather-induced variability in electricity peak is projected to range from 6.1–7.8 GW (10.2–15.2% of mean peak demand) in 2020 to 6.2–14.6 GW (9.8–22.2% of mean peak demand) in 2050. We find that future weather may exacerbate the impact of electrification of heat on peak demand. However, socio-economic uncertainty predominates weather-induced variability. Electrification of heat without reducing heating demands will result in dramatic increases in peak electricity demand as well as increased exposure to weather effects. Regions experiencing a combined increase in peak demand and weather variability will likely prove to be particularly challenging for balancing demand and supply. Switching to alternative fuels such as hydrogen or measures to lower heating demand reduces the need for additional peak electricity capacity as well as mitigating impacts of extreme weather events.

Keywords: Decarbonisation; Energy transition; Scenario analysis; Geospatial modelling; Hydrogen; Electrification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220300542
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220300542

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.116947

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().