 Factors driving oil price —— from the perspective of United StatesChi-Wei Su, Meng Qin, Ran Tao, Nicoleta-Claudia Moldovan and Oana-Ramona Lobonţ Energy, 2020, vol. 197, issue C Abstract: This paper chooses monthly data covering the period from 1990:M1 to 2018:M12 to investigate the contributions of partisan conflicts (PCI), the dollar index (USDX) and U.S. oil production (PRO) on the oil price (OP) by applying the time-varying parameter-stochastic volatility-vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model. The empirical results are consistent with the general equilibrium model, which states that the PCI has certain influences on the OP. However, the impact of the PCI is less than that of the USDX, and the negative effect of the USDX was strengthened after the global economic crisis. Moreover, the PRO is less important to the oil market than the PCI and USDX. In general, we can conclude that there are important roles that U.S. factors play in the oil market, especially those of partisan conflicts and the dollar value. Understanding the effects of U.S. factors on the oil market can provide revelations for countries, allowing them to formulate energy policies and stabilize the oil market. Additionally, an understanding of these factors can allow investors to adjust their investment decisions and diversify their assets. Keywords: Partisan conflicts; Dollar index; U.S. oil production; Oil price; Time-varying (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:197:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220303261 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117219 Access Statistics for this article Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser More articles in Energy from Elsevier |
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