Application of a Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis to support decision-making within a macro-scale energy model: Case study of the electrification of the road European transport sector

Daniele Lerede, Giuseppe Pinto, Mirko Saccone, Chiara Bustreo, Alfonso Capozzoli and Laura Savoldi

Energy, 2021, vol. 236, issue C

Abstract: Energy system models based on the TIMES framework can explore possible energy futures through the construction of a network of technological processes, to satisfy a set of exogenously imposed service demands at the least-cost system configuration. This work presents a methodology aimed at supporting decision-makers in finding optimal energy-system configuration in a complex energy environment, characterized by uncertain information. First, the EUROfusion TIMES Model is used to assess the sensitivity of different long-term evolutions of the European energy system, with particular reference to the road transport sector, considering different trends for the prescribed future variations of investment cost and vehicle efficiency. In a second step, the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis is used to critically evaluate the alternative optimal configurations proposed by the model simulations under a set of economic and environmental criteria. The results of the analysis allow the discussion of the influence of such criteria on the different alternative cases, complementing the cost minimization approach. In the case study considered here, high penetrations of electric vehicles in the road fleet are favored by economic, environmental and energy-related priorities.

Keywords: Energy system models; Scenario analysis; Multicriteria decision analysis; Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis; Decision Making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:236:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221016923

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.121444

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